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International economic forecast

IMF Raises India FY26 Growth Forecast

Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Oct 14, 2025 · Last updated Oct 15, 2025

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The upward revision of India's growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group signals strong economic momentum, potentially boosting investor confidence in India. However, the lingering impact of United States tariffs on Indian exports introduces some uncertainty for future fiscal years.

Financial Services Government International Trade

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India's growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) upward to 6.6%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its previous estimate. This revision is primarily due to India's strong growth momentum in the first quarter of FY26, which saw the economy grow at 7.8%, largely offsetting the impact of increased United States tariffs on Indian imports. However, the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecast for FY27 to 6.2%, citing the continued impact of these tariffs. The World Bank Group also raised its FY26 projection for India to 6.5%. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva affirmed India's growing economic significance, stating it is becoming a key engine for global growth. Other rating agencies like Fitch Ratings and S&P Global — CRISIL Ratings also provided their forecasts, with Fitch Ratings revising India's outlook to 6.9% and S&P Global — CRISIL Ratings maintaining 6.5%. The State Bank of India also raised its FY26 GDP growth projection to 6.8%.

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, International Monetary Fund chief economist, noted that the global growth downgrade was modest due to trade negotiations and private sector agility.
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S&P Global — CRISIL Ratings maintained India's GDP growth forecast, acknowledging downside risks from US tariffs.
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S&P's estimate for India's growth is mentioned for comparison with the International Monetary Fund's forecast.
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