US Sanctions Cut India's Russian Oil Imports

India's imports of Russian oil have significantly decreased by nearly a third following stringent US sanctions on key Russian exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, which took effect on November 21. Analysts from Kpler anticipate further declines in December, with imports potentially falling to 1.0 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.8 million bpd in November. This shift is prompting India, the world's third-largest oil importer, to diversify its crude sources, increasing intake from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas. Companies like Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited have halted imports from sanctioned Russian entities. However, Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy continues to import Russian crude. In response, Russia is adapting its logistics with ship-to-ship transfers and mid-voyage diversions, while also increasing discounts to maintain its market share. The long-term impact on India's energy basket and global oil trade dynamics remains to be seen, with a potential for more opaque trading channels if broader secondary sanctions are not applied.