India Misses FY26 Export Target

India is projected to miss its ambitious USD 1 trillion export target for the fiscal year 2025-26 by approximately USD 150 billion, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Ajay Shrivastava, founder of GTRI, attributes this shortfall to a global economic slowdown, weak demand, and increasing protectionism, particularly impacting merchandise shipments. While services exports are expected to grow, goods exports are anticipated to remain flat. The target is deemed achievable only after India concludes major trade agreements with key partners like the United States and the European Union, possibly next year. Despite the overall subdued growth, India has shown early signs of geographic diversification in its export markets, with exports to the United States declining but increasing to other regions. However, Shrivastava emphasizes the need for India to diversify its export basket to include more medium to high-tech products. He also commented on BRICS as a loose compilation of countries largely driven by China and highlighted the influence of global factors, such as United States interest rates, on the India — Indian rupee's depreciation. India is urged to take a more assertive stance at the World Trade Organization to push for its core trade agenda and protect agricultural interests, potentially forming coalitions with countries like South Africa and Brazil. Despite export headwinds, domestic economic fundamentals in India are considered supportive of growth.