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Domestic job report

US December Job Growth Slows

Analysis based on 11 articles · First reported Jan 09, 2026 · Last updated Jan 09, 2026

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The slower-than-expected job growth in the United States, coupled with a dip in the unemployment rate, supports the United States — Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, which could lead to market stability. However, structural challenges in the labor market, influenced by factors like tariffs and AI, suggest that rate cuts may be less effective in stimulating job growth, potentially limiting upside for the broader economy.

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The United States experienced slower job growth in December, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 50,000 jobs, falling short of the 60,000 forecast. Despite this, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%, down from a revised 4.5% in November. This data supports expectations that the United States — Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, having previously cut them in December to a 3.50%-3.75% range. Economists attribute the slowdown to business caution regarding hiring, influenced by import tariffs and increasing investment in artificial intelligence, leading to a 'no hire, no fire' labor market. The United States — Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that approximately 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously reported, partly due to issues with its birth-death model, which it plans to change starting in January. The labor market's challenges are increasingly viewed as structural rather than cyclical, making traditional rate cuts less effective for stimulating job growth.

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Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Banco Santander — Santander US Capital Markets, commented on the limited effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating job growth due to structural challenges.
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Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal — BMO Capital Markets, provided commentary on businesses' caution regarding hiring.
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Dan North, senior economist at Allianz — Allianz Trade, commented on the continuous uncertainty over tariffs and shrinking foreign-born labor supply.
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