New START Treaty Expires
Analysis based on 9 articles · First reported Feb 05, 2026 · Last updated Feb 05, 2026
The expiration of the New START Treaty between the United States and Russia is expected to lead to an unconstrained nuclear arms race, increasing global geopolitical instability. This could negatively impact defense sector stocks due to increased spending, but also create uncertainty in broader markets as international relations become more strained.
The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the United States and Russia, expired on Thursday, leaving no caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in over half a century. Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, expressed regret over the expiration and had previously offered to adhere to the treaty's limits for another year, an offer that was not accepted by the United States under President Donald Trump. Donald Trump has advocated for a new, broader arms control agreement that would include China, a proposal that China has rebuffed. China, led by Xi Jinping, stated its nuclear forces are not comparable to those of the United States and Russia and urged a resumption of nuclear dialogue between the two powers. The expiration of the treaty has raised fears among arms control experts of a dangerous, years-long nuclear arms buildup involving the United States, Russia, and potentially China. Despite the treaty's expiration, the United States and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue.
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