European Skepticism on Ukraine Peace

European intelligence chiefs are pessimistic about the prospects of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine being reached this year, despite assertions from US President Donald Trump that a deal is 'reasonably close.' They believe Russia is using the US-mediated talks, which include figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as 'negotiation theater' to push for sanctions relief and business deals, rather than genuinely seeking a quick end to the war. Russia's strategic goals, including the removal of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and making Ukraine a 'neutral' buffer, remain unchanged. Ukraine, led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is frustrated by the lack of progress, particularly regarding territorial disputes in Ukraine — Donetsk Oblast, and views Russia's approach as a delay tactic. Discussions have also reportedly included bilateral cooperation deals worth trillions of dollars proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, aimed at appealing to Donald Trump and Russian oligarchs. While Russia is seen as a 'resilient society,' some officials warn of 'very high' financial risks for Russia in the latter half of 2026 due to sanctions and high borrowing costs.