CIA Assesses Iran Succession Post-Khamenei
Analysis based on 10 articles · First reported Feb 28, 2026 · Last updated Mar 01, 2026
The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and the United States — Central Intelligence Agency's assessment of potential hardline succession in Iran create significant geopolitical instability. This could lead to increased oil prices due to supply concerns from the Middle East and negatively impact global markets due to heightened uncertainty.
The United States — Central Intelligence Agency assessed that if Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed in U.S. and Israeli attacks, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These assessments were made in the run-up to the attacks, which occurred on Saturday. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has expressed a clear objective of regime change in Iran. Prior to the attacks, U.S. officials attempted to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran to prevent military intervention, but these talks failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed congressional lawmakers about the impending operation.
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