US Warns India-Pakistan Nuclear Risk

The United States Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment, presented to the United States on March 18, 2026, warns that relations between India and Pakistan remain at risk for nuclear conflict. The report attributes this risk to historical tensions, the potential for terrorist attacks (such as the one near Pahalgam in India — Jammu and Kashmir), and the presence of non-state actors. While neither India nor Pakistan seeks open conflict, conditions exist for crises, though former President Donald Trump's intervention de-escalated recent nuclear tensions. The assessment also highlights broader regional security concerns, including the continued presence of Islamic State – Khorasan Province in South Asia, despite aggressive actions by the Taliban. Furthermore, Pakistan is developing increasingly sophisticated missile technology, with the potential to strike targets beyond South Asia and even threaten the United States with ICBMs. Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have also escalated, marked by cross-border clashes and Pakistan's frustration over anti-Pakistan militant groups operating from Afghanistan. A recent incident on February 26 saw the Taliban launch strikes against Pakistani military positions, followed by Pakistani retaliatory bombings of Afghan border provinces and Afghanistan — Kabul.