Israel's Targeted Killings in Iran

Israel is employing a strategy of targeted killings against senior leaders in Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, aiming to destabilize and ultimately topple these entities. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes this will weaken the governments and incite uprisings, past experiences with Hezbollah and Hamas show that such tactics often have limited long-term impact and can even backfire, leading to more extreme leadership or prolonged conflict. For instance, after the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba, perceived as less compromising, took over. Similarly, despite significant losses, Hezbollah and Hamas have continued their operations against Israel. Experts like Jon Alterman and Max Abrahms warn that the impact of targeted killings often fades, can radicalize followers, and may lead to increased violence. Historical examples from Congo, Libya, and Iraq also suggest that leadership decapitation without a coherent political follow-through can result in prolonged instability and chaos.