Global Sugar Prices Tumble

Sugar prices have tumbled to 2-week lows, primarily driven by increased global production and a sharp decline in Petroleum prices. India's sugar output for 2025-26 is up 9% year-over-year, and Brazil's cumulative output also shows an increase, with mills dedicating more cane to sugar production. The plunge in Petroleum prices makes ethanol less attractive, prompting sugar mills to shift production towards Sugar, exacerbating the supply surplus. Forecasts from the International Sugar Organization, Czarnikow, Green Pool Commodity Specialists, and StoneX Group Inc. all indicate a global Sugar surplus for the upcoming crop years. The United States — United States Department of Agriculture also projects record global Sugar production. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provides some minor support by disrupting trade, and a stronger Brazil — Brazilian real discourages exports from Brazil, these factors are outweighed by the overwhelming supply-side pressures.