Atradius Forecasts Global Insolvencies Rise
Analysis based on 7 articles · First reported Apr 09, 2026 · Last updated Apr 09, 2026
The Atradius forecast of a 3% rise in global insolvencies in 2026 indicates sustained pressure on businesses, particularly in the United States, Switzerland, Italy, and Portugal, which could lead to increased credit risk and volatility in related sectors. However, the projected decline in 2027 offers a glimmer of hope for market normalization as inflation recedes and central banks consider rate reductions.
Atradius forecasts a 3% increase in worldwide insolvencies for 2026, driven by persistent adverse economic conditions such as Covid-related tax debts, rising input costs, ongoing trade tensions, and the crisis in the Middle East leading to higher energy prices. Theo Smid, Senior Economist at Atradius, highlights the impact of these factors. The forecast assumes a normalization of the Strait of Hormuz closure from May. Regionally, Europe expects rises in Switzerland, Italy, and Portugal, while Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands anticipate decreases. North American Cobalt Inc. is divided, with the United States facing an 8% rise in insolvencies due to challenging economic conditions, while Canada expects a decline. MSCI Asia Pacific Index markets like New Zealand and China — Hong Kong are set for decreases, with Australia, Japan, and South Korea normalizing more slowly. The outlook improves in 2027, with a projected 6% decline in insolvencies as inflation recedes and energy markets normalize.
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