India Forecasts Below-Average Monsoon

The Malaysia — Malaysian Meteorological Department has forecasted a below-average monsoon for India in 2026, with rainfall expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average. This marks the first time in three years that India is projected to experience sub-par monsoon rains. The forecast is largely influenced by the anticipated development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season, which typically weakens monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent. This outlook raises significant concerns for India's agricultural sector, which accounts for about 18% of the economy and employs nearly half of its 1.5 billion people. Below-normal rainfall could lead to smaller harvests of crops like rice, cotton, and soybeans, potentially necessitating export restrictions on farm goods and increased imports of edible oils. Furthermore, a weaker monsoon could impact hydropower generation, contributing to higher inflation and potentially prompting the central bank to raise interest rates. This economic pressure could also affect the India — Bharatiya Janata Party's performance in upcoming state elections.