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International economic forecast

IMF Warns of Global Recession

Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Apr 14, 2026 · Last updated Apr 14, 2026

Sentiment
-70
Attention
7
Articles
6
Market Impact
General
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The ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, coupled with high energy prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, poses a significant risk of global recession. This has led to downgraded growth forecasts for several economies, including the United Kingdom, Qatar, Iraq, and China, while benefiting Russia due to increased oil prices and eased sanctions.

Oil & Gas Shipping Financial Services

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy is at risk of recession if the US-Israel war with Iran continues and high energy prices persist. The conflict, which began in late February 2026, has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy prices to soar. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report projects global growth could fall below 2% in a worst-case scenario, with oil prices reaching $110-$125 per barrel and inflation hitting 6%. Several countries are expected to be significantly impacted, with the United Kingdom facing the hardest hit among advanced economies, and Qatar and Iraq experiencing economic contractions. Iran's economy is also forecast to shrink, especially after the United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports. Conversely, Russia is expected to see economic growth due to rising oil prices and the temporary lifting of sanctions by Donald Trump.

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Qatar — Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG refinery in Qatar, was struck by Iran and is not expected to be fully operational for some time.
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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, International Monetary Fund chief economist, warned about spiraling inflation, unemployment, and food insecurity if the conflict prolongs.
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Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for finance, warned against easing sanctions on Russia, noting its economic benefit from high energy prices.
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Valdis Dombrovskis related Iran
Scott Bessent related Russia
Scott Bessent related Israel
Scott Bessent related Qatar
Scott Bessent sanctions proponent Iran As U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent is a leading architect of economic sanctions and financial warfare against Ira
Russia related United Kingdom
Russia geopolitical rivals Israel Russia has strongly condemned Israeli airstrikes on Iran, suspending flights to Israel and opposing Israeli military obj
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