Atlantic Current Weakens More Than Expected
Analysis based on 13 articles · First reported Apr 15, 2026 · Last updated Apr 22, 2026
The potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by 2100 could have significant long-term impacts on global markets, particularly in agriculture due to droughts and real estate due to rising sea levels. While not a direct market event, the study highlights increasing climate risks that could affect insurance and other industries.
A new study, published in Science Advances by researchers from the France — French National Centre for Scientific Research and the University of Bordeaux, estimates that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) could weaken by 51% by 2100. This is a more severe slowdown than previous climate models predicted, which estimated an average of 32%. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is a crucial ocean current system that redistributes heat and regulates global climate. A collapse or significant weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could lead to devastating consequences, including harsher winters in northern Europe, droughts in South Asia and the Sahel region in Africa, and higher sea levels in North America. While there is scientific debate about the exact intensity and timing of the slowdown, experts like Valentin Portmann, Florian Sevellec, Stefan Rahmstorf, María Paz Chidichimo, Laura Jackson, and David Thornalley acknowledge the worrying implications and the need for nations to prepare for ongoing environmental changes.
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