Goldman Sachs on Gulf Oil Recovery
Analysis based on 13 articles · First reported Apr 24, 2026 · Last updated Apr 25, 2026
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant reduction in Gulf oil output, causing uncertainty in global energy markets. A swift reopening and recovery, as projected by Goldman Sachs, would stabilize oil prices and supply, positively impacting the global economy.
Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating that Gulf crude oil production could largely recover within a few months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The report estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day, or 57% of pre-war supply, was offline in April, primarily due to precautionary shutdowns rather than physical damage. While a swift recovery is possible, a complete return to pre-war levels faces risks such as reduced tanker availability, technical challenges of restarting wells, and country-specific issues, particularly for Iran and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are expected to lead the recovery due to their spare capacity and robust infrastructure. The pace of recovery will depend on regional security, shipping capacity, and technical readiness.
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