El Nino Return Forecasted by WMO
Analysis based on 14 articles · First reported Apr 24, 2026 · Last updated Apr 25, 2026
The likely return of El Nino conditions, as forecasted by the World Meteorological Organization, is expected to have significant impacts on global agriculture, water resource management, and energy sectors. Specifically, the Malaysia — Malaysian Meteorological Department's prediction of a below-normal monsoon for India could negatively affect agricultural output and related industries in India.
The World Meteorological Organization has issued its latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, indicating a high likelihood of El Nino conditions returning as early as May-July 2026. This event is characterized by rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and is expected to lead to a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures. Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at World Meteorological Organization, noted the strong alignment of climate models. El Nino typically influences global weather patterns, causing increased rainfall in regions like southern United States and parts of South America, while leading to drought in areas such as Australia and Indonesia. The Malaysia — Malaysian Meteorological Department has already predicted a below-normal monsoon for India in 2026, which could have significant implications for the country's agriculture and economy. The World Meteorological Organization will release further updates in late May to provide more refined guidance.
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