El Niño and Iran War Threaten Global Crops
Analysis based on 14 articles · First reported Apr 24, 2026 · Last updated Apr 27, 2026
The strongest El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a decade, combined with the Iran war, is expected to severely impact global agricultural markets. Crop yields for Wheat, Rapeseed oil, Palm oil, Rice, Maize, Soybean oil, Cotton, and Rapeseed oil are projected to decline in key producing regions like Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and China, leading to higher food prices and potential food supply shortages. Additionally, disruptions in Fertilizer supplies and increased Fuel costs due to the Iran war will further strain farmers and contribute to inflationary pressures in the agricultural sector.
Forecasts indicate the strongest El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a decade, promising hotter, drier weather across Asia in the second half of 2026. This phenomenon is expected to significantly impact global agriculture, particularly in Australia, India, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia, threatening the production of key crops such as Wheat, Rapeseed oil, Palm oil, Rice, Cotton, Soybean oil, and Rapeseed oil. Simultaneously, the ongoing Iran war is exacerbating the situation by disrupting Fertilizer supplies and increasing Fuel costs due to choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While some regions like the United States and Europe might experience heavier rains, potentially benefiting Maize, excessive rainfall could also disrupt harvests and degrade crop quality. The combined effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and geopolitical tensions is creating a challenging outlook for global food security and agricultural markets.
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