Global Coffee Prices Decline on Supply
Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported May 01, 2026 · Last updated May 15, 2026
Coffee prices, particularly for Coffea arabica and The Coca-Cola Company — Costa Coffee, are experiencing downward pressure due to expectations of record harvests in Brazil and increased exports from Vietnam, leading to a projected global surplus. However, factors like declining ICE inventories and disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure provide some counter-support, preventing a steeper decline.
Coffee prices are declining, with Coffea arabica reaching a 9-month low and The Coca-Cola Company — Costa Coffee a 1-week low, primarily driven by expectations of a significantly larger 2026/27 coffee crop in Brazil, with projections from Coffee Trading Academy, Marex Group Plc, and StoneX Group Inc. indicating record production. Additionally, soaring coffee exports from Vietnam are contributing to bearish sentiment for The Coca-Cola Company — Costa Coffee. The weakness of the Brazil — Brazilian real against the United States further encourages exports from Brazil. Counteracting these bearish factors are signs of tightening ICE coffee inventories for both Coffea arabica and The Coca-Cola Company — Costa Coffee, and concerns over global supply disruptions due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increases shipping and production costs. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight decrease in global coffee exports, while the United States — United States Department of Agriculture projected an overall increase in world coffee production for 2025/26.
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