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Business market contraction

Global Smartphone Market Contracts 13.9%

Analysis based on 10 articles · First reported Jun 01, 2026 · Last updated Jun 01, 2026

Sentiment
-70
Attention
6
Articles
10
Market Impact
General
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The global smartphone market is facing its steepest annual contraction on record, with shipments projected to slump by 13.9% due to a worsening memory chip shortage exacerbated by the Iran war. This will negatively impact companies like Transsion, Xiaomi, and ERC with significant shipment declines, while Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics are expected to be more resilient.

Technology Semiconductors Consumer Electronics

The global smartphone market is projected to experience its steepest annual contraction on record, with shipments expected to slump by 13.9% to 1.08 billion units this year, according to Counterpoint Research. This downgrade from an earlier forecast is attributed to a worsening shortage of memory chips, exacerbated by the Iran war. The impact is most severe in lower-end smartphones, as chipmakers prioritize AI-related chips, making budget devices less economical to produce. Global smartphone wholesale prices rose 14% in Q1, while shipments fell 3.1%. Companies like Transsion, Xiaomi, and ERC are forecast to see significant declines in shipments (32%, 28%, and 16-20% respectively). In contrast, the premium segment has shown resilience, with Apple Inc. posting record revenue and Samsung Electronics maintaining steady volumes, both benefiting from more stable chip supply and stronger margins.

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Counterpoint Research is an independent research company that provides analysis and forecasts for the global smartphone market, highlighting the current contraction and its causes.
Importance 80.0 Sentiment 0.0
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Apple Inc. has shown resilience in the premium smartphone segment, posting record revenue and expecting flat shipments in 2026 before a 5% rise next year, due to stable chip supply and strong margins.
Importance 70.0 Sentiment 20.0
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Samsung Electronics maintained steady volumes in Q1 and is projected to have only a 4% decline in shipments for the full year, outperforming the market due to stable supply and product lineup.
Importance 60.0 Sentiment 10.0
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Transsion, heavily exposed to the budget smartphone market, is forecast to suffer a significant 32% drop in shipments this year due to the chip shortage and increased production costs.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -80.0
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Xiaomi is projected to experience a 28% decline in full-year shipments, impacted by the severe memory chip shortage and rising costs in the low and mid-tier smartphone market.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -70.0
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ERC is projected to post a 16% or 20% decline in full-year shipments, facing challenges similar to other budget-focused brands due to the chip shortage.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -60.0
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Wang Yang, a principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, provided expert commentary on the severity of the memory chip shortage and its impact on smartphone manufacturers.
Importance 40.0 Sentiment 0.0
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The Iran war is cited as a factor exacerbating the global chip supply squeeze, indirectly contributing to the smartphone market contraction.
Importance 30.0 Sentiment 0.0
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Che Pan is one of the reporters for Reuters covering this event.
Importance 10.0 Sentiment 0.0
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Casey Hall is one of the reporters for Reuters covering this event.
Importance 10.0 Sentiment 0.0
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