OPEC Lowers 2026 Oil Demand Forecast
Analysis based on 10 articles · First reported Jun 11, 2026 · Last updated Jun 11, 2026
The downward revision of the 2026 oil demand growth forecast by OPEC, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced output from Iran, is likely to lead to higher fuel prices globally. This will negatively impact consumers and businesses, potentially slowing economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures. The oil and gas industry will face supply constraints and price volatility.
OPEC has lowered its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second consecutive downward revision. This adjustment is primarily attributed to the ongoing Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil route. The war has curbed millions of barrels of Middle East output and made it impossible for OPEC to increase production as previously agreed. Iran's oil exports have sharply declined due to a United States blockade, leading to the biggest drop in its output. While OPEC expects a rebound in demand for 2027, the immediate impact is a surge in fuel prices affecting consumers and businesses worldwide. The United States — Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency both anticipate a decline in oil demand this year due to the conflict.
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