West African Rains Boost Cocoa Prices
Analysis based on 64 articles · First reported Jun 15, 2026 · Last updated Aug 05, 2026
Cocoa futures have surged over 20% in three weeks, reaching 6-month highs, as supply concerns from West African floods and El Niño–Southern Oscillation fears outweigh rising inventories and weak demand. The rally may continue if weather issues persist, but high inventory levels could cap further gains.
Cocoa prices have rallied sharply over the past three weeks, surging to 6-month highs, driven by heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana that have flooded roads, cut off farmers' access to farms and ports, and increased the risk of brown rot and black pod diseases. The excessive moisture threatens global cocoa supplies. Additionally, the confirmed El Niño–Southern Oscillation weather pattern by Japan's Meteorological Agency and NOAA's estimate of a 67% chance of a 'Super El Niño–Southern Oscillation' this year add medium-term support, as El Niño–Southern Oscillation typically brings drier conditions to West Africa. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below-average cherelle formation, signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest. However, rising ICE cocoa inventories (near 2-year highs) and weak global demand (Q1 grindings fell in North America and Europe) provide bearish counterpoints. Nigerian cocoa exports rose in May, adding to supply concerns. The Strait of Hormuz closure is also disrupting fertilizer supplies and raising shipping costs. StoneX has cut its global cocoa surplus estimates for both 2025/26 and 2026/27.
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