IEA Forecasts 2027 Oil Surplus
Analysis based on 15 articles · First reported Jun 17, 2026 · Last updated Jun 17, 2026
The market is expected to see a significant oil supply surplus by 2027 due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the United States' naval blockade on Iran. This will likely lead to lower oil prices and an opportunity for countries to replenish depleted inventories, easing price pressures after a period of extreme volatility.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant global oil supply surplus by 2027, following an interim agreement between the United States and Iran to end the Iran war. This agreement includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the United States lifting its naval blockade, which is expected to end the largest oil supply disruption in history. The IEA predicts that global oil supply will surge by 8 million barrels per day (bpd) while demand rises by only 2 million bpd, leading to a 5.05 million bpd surplus. This shift is anticipated to provide respite to the market, allowing for inventory replenishment and potentially new strategic reserves. However, oil inventories could fall further before the surplus materializes towards the end of this year. OPEC, a rival forecaster, has also lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026.
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