OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035
Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Feb 26, 2025 · Last updated Jun 30, 2026
The report's projections of increased agricultural income and production, coupled with downward pressure on commodity prices, could benefit consumers but challenge smallholder farmers. The vulnerability to market volatility and energy price hikes, particularly affecting low-income countries, suggests potential for food security crises and shifts in global trade dynamics. The projected increase in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture could also influence investment in sustainable farming practices.
The 'OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035' report, released by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the OECD, projects a 9% increase in global average gross agricultural income per worker by 2035, driven by productivity gains and stable prices. Global agricultural and fisheries production is expected to expand by 13% over the next decade, concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Americas. However, the outlook is vulnerable to market volatility, with a 25% probability of lower agricultural incomes by 2035 if recent shocks continue. Energy price surges could lead to declines in global grain production, particularly in low-income countries, exacerbating food insecurity. Mathias Cormann and Qu Dongyu emphasized the need for resilience, investment in productivity, and open global markets. The report also forecasts a 6.5% increase in direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, mainly from livestock and synthetic fertilizers. While productivity improvements may benefit consumers through lower commodity prices, they pose challenges for smallholder farmers. Brazil, India, and Indonesia are expected to drive biofuel demand, and India will significantly contribute to agricultural output. China's aquaculture expansion is expected to moderate.
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