Super El Nino Threatens Global Food Security
Analysis based on 237 articles · First reported Jul 01, 2026 · Last updated Aug 15, 2026
The super El Nino is expected to drive up global food prices, potentially adding 0.3 percentage points to global inflation next year, with emerging markets hit hardest. Agricultural commodity prices, particularly for rice, sugar, and palm oil, are likely to surge, while insurers face increased risks from extreme weather events despite a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
A powerful El Nino event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with forecasts indicating a high probability of it becoming 'very strong' or 'super' by late 2026. This event is expected to disrupt global weather patterns, leading to droughts, floods, and extreme heat across various regions. The World Food Programme warns that up to 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity by end of 2027, while the African Development Bank estimates economic losses of $10-20 billion for Africa. JPMorgan and Schroders project significant impacts on global food inflation, potentially reaching double digits. The event is compounded by ongoing conflicts, particularly the Iran war, which has disrupted fertilizer and energy supplies. While global grain inventories are relatively strong, the combination of El Nino and geopolitical tensions poses a serious threat to food security and prices. The event is also expected to break temperature records, with 2027 likely to be the hottest year on record.
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