US-Iran fighting resumes over Hormuz

Fighting between the United States and Iran has resumed, threatening to extend the global energy crisis. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that renewed hostilities could scupper hopes of a swift recovery in energy markets. The latest round of fighting was triggered by rival interpretations of provisions governing the Strait of Hormuz in last month's US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). The IEA reported that the effective closure of Hormuz had cut as much as 14 million barrels per day of crude oil flows. Global oil supply rose by 4.1 million bpd in June after the MoU and reopening of the strait, but remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. The IEA had forecast a surplus in 2027 assuming full operation, but fighting has again halted shipping through the strait. Oil prices held steady at $76.37 per barrel for Brent Crude, up $4 from a week earlier. A lull in attacks on Thursday and Friday reflected efforts to revive diplomacy, with Pakistan and Qatar mediating. Iran struck Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan this week, drawing condemnation. The United Nations warned of catastrophic consequences if escalation continues.