Fuel prices surge despite oil easing
Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Jul 11, 2026 · Last updated Jul 11, 2026
The divergence between rising fuel prices and falling crude oil squeezes consumers and threatens inflation, potentially impacting central bank policy and corporate earnings. The supply disruptions from Russia's export ban and Middle East tensions, combined with peak summer demand, keep fuel prices elevated despite lower crude benchmarks.
Prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are rebounding even as crude oil eases, a rare divergence that is swelling costs for peak-season travelers and threatening to undermine President Donald Trump's pledge to quash inflation ahead of midterm elections. The gap between the cost of some refined products and raw crude is at a record in the US and other regions even as global oil benchmarks have all but erased the spike driven by the Iran war. Analysts warn that consumers need to brace for more pain as a Russian export ban stemming from the conflict with Ukraine and renewed tensions in the Middle East squeeze supplies. Russia banned diesel exports after months of Ukrainian attacks on its refineries caused domestic shortages. The US renewed attacks on Iran this week, and Trump declared a ceasefire over. China authorized larger-scale fuel exports for the first time since March. The White House suspended a shipping mandate and waived some gasoline blending requirements to ease disruptions. Hedge funds were bullish on European Gasoil before the US attacks. Companies like PepsiCo blame gasoline for slumping consumer demand, and The Vanguard Group is buying inflation insurance. Refineries are running at high utilization rates, inventories are drawing, and there are risks from heatwaves and hurricane season.
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