Super El Niño threatens global food prices

Economists and analysts warn that a potentially historic 'super' El Niño–Southern Oscillation weather cycle developing in 2026-27 could trigger a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028, compounding inflation already stoked by the Iran war. The U.S. United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed warming conditions in the Pacific with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C above normal. Goldman Sachs estimated a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices, with eurozone food prices rising 1.3%. Schroders warned of double-digit global food inflation due to the confluence with fertilizer supply disruptions from the Iran war. Risilience estimated a 14.3% reduction in global agricultural production ($342 billion loss). The World Meteorological Organization urged preparation. Leigh Mante of the Observer Research Foundation highlighted asymmetric impacts across crops and regions. The event is expected to affect crops including wheat, rice, sugarcane, palm oil, coffee, and cocoa, with price shocks of 10-50% for major commodities and 50-100% for vulnerable crops. Central banks are concerned about renewed inflation and elevated interest rates.