US-Iran strikes escalate Hormuz crisis

Oil prices surged over 3% on July 13, 2026, after the United States and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes over the weekend, reigniting fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The US launched a third wave of strikes within 24 hours targeting Iranian missile batteries, air defense systems, and naval assets around the strait, according to CENTCOM. Iran retaliated by expanding strikes on Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, attacking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and declaring the strait closed. CENTCOM disputed the closure, stating traffic was flowing. Vessel traffic through the strait fell to a five-week low of six vessels on Sunday, according to Kpler. The escalation casts doubt on the interim US-Iranian agreement signed in June aimed at reopening the strait. The International Energy Agency reported global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June but remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs estimated that expanding pipeline capacity could shield over 60% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from Hormuz disruptions by end-2028. Iranian oil supplies held at sea are rising, but sales are slow as Chinese refiners turn to cheaper crude from Iraq, UAE, and Qatar. ADNOC set its August Murban crude OSP at $80.01/bbl, down from $101.48 in July.