Food systems transformation reshapes agriculture

A new analysis published in Nature (journal) by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Cornell University, and 10 modeling teams models the impact of a global shift toward healthier diets, improved farm productivity, and halved food waste by 2050. The study, aligned with the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission recommendations, projects a 42% decline ($630 billion) in global livestock production value, a 70% drop ($274 billion) in ruminant production value, and 400 million fewer ruminant animals. In contrast, vegetable, fruit, nut, and legume production value could rise by 57% ($890 billion). Agricultural land use could fall by 6%, and agriculture-related net CO2 emissions from land-use change could drop by 85% by 2050. Regional impacts vary: US agricultural production value could decline by 21% ($76 billion), India's could increase by 46% ($198 billion), and Europe's could fall by 35% ($190 billion). The authors emphasize these are scenarios, not forecasts, and call for bold policy decisions to support vulnerable producers and consumers.