Goldman warns Brent could top $120
Analysis based on 7 articles · First reported Jul 21, 2026 · Last updated Jul 21, 2026
The forecast of potential $120 Brent highlights significant upside risk to oil prices due to Middle East disruptions, which could increase costs for consumers and pressure central banks. However, the base case of de-escalation suggests limited long-term impact if tensions ease.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven published a note on July 20, 2026, warning that Brent Crude could rally above $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz persist. This scenario is not their base case, which assumes de-escalation and forecasts Brent at $80 in Q4 and $75 in 2027. The note highlights that escalation in the Middle East and a decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up. Brent surged above $91 in July amid renewed US-Iran fighting and Houthi threats to blockade Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea. Goldman notes that lower global inventories in Q2 leave the market vulnerable, but a slump in Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity may limit gains. They recommend going long on European diesel timespreads to hedge geopolitical shocks.
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