North Dakota heat threatens wheat yields
Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Jul 23, 2026 · Last updated Jul 24, 2026
Wheat futures have surged nearly 40% this year due to supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adverse weather in key growing regions. The reduced yield outlook for United States — North Dakota, combined with heat in Europe and wet conditions in Canada, is likely to keep wheat prices elevated.
Scorching heat in United States — North Dakota is threatening wheat yields just as crop prices rise to a three-year high. A recent spate of 100-degree days is stressing fields in the key U.S. wheat-growing state while escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine put exports at risk in the Black Sea. The Wheat Quality Council's annual crop tour estimated United States — North Dakota's spring wheat yield at 48 bushels per acre, below the USDA's outlook of 58 bushels per acre. Heat in Europe also lowered expectations for wheat from France and Germany. Wheat futures have rallied nearly 40% this year, with benchmark futures closing above $7 a bushel. Russia warned that it was unsafe to navigate in the Black Sea region, citing threats from Ukraine. The two countries account for more than a quarter of global wheat shipments.
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