Talarico leads Paxton in Texas Senate race
Analysis based on 21 articles · First reported Jul 27, 2026 · Last updated Aug 10, 2026
The United States — Texas Senate race is a key battleground for control of the U.S. Senate, with Republicans holding a 53-45 majority. A Democratic win in United States — Texas would significantly boost Democratic chances of reclaiming the chamber, potentially shifting the balance of power and affecting legislative agendas and market expectations for policy changes.
In the 2026 United States — Texas U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico has taken a lead over Republican Ken Paxton in multiple recent polls. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll (July 15-17) shows Talarico ahead 45% to 40%, while a Texas Pulse survey by ReconMR (July 27-30) shows Talarico leading 47% to 43%, and a Fox News poll (July 23-27) shows Talarico ahead 51% to 48%. Talarico's lead is driven by strong support among independents, non-college-educated voters, and younger voters, while Paxton retains support among Republicans and older voters. Talarico has also built a significant fundraising advantage, reporting $21.5 million available versus Paxton's $7.5 million. The race is rated 'Lean Republican' by the Amy Walter, but Democrats see an opportunity to flip a seat they have not won in over 30 years. Talarico has sought to highlight Paxton's ethical baggage, including his handling of a child sexual abuse case involving lawyer Adam Hoffman, while Paxton's campaign dismisses the attacks as distractions. The election is scheduled for November 2026.
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