Cocoa prices fall on supply glut
Analysis based on 10 articles · First reported Jul 23, 2026 · Last updated Jul 30, 2026
Cocoa futures have fallen over 5% on supply glut fears, pressuring commodity markets. However, long-term supply constraints from El Niño and reduced surplus forecasts may limit further downside.
Cocoa prices have declined sharply to 3-week lows due to signs of larger global supplies. Cumulative data from Ivory Coast showed farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa in the current marketing year, up 21% year-over-year. Nigerian cocoa exports rose 30% in June. ICE cocoa inventories reached a 2-year high of over 3.3 million bags. Demand was mixed: European Q2 grindings fell 4.6%, while North American and Asian grindings rose 7.7% and 25% respectively. Support comes from forecasts of a smaller global surplus in 2026/27, with Transgraph Consulting estimating 80,000 MT and StoneX cutting its estimate to 25,000 MT. Early Ivory Coast crop surveys show below-average cherelle formation, but recent pod counts have improved. El Niño concerns persist, with the United States — Climate Prediction Center forecasting a strong event that could reduce West African yields. Nigerian production is projected to fall 11% in 2025/26.
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