Kotak Securities crude oil India market outlook

In an exclusive interview with ANI, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Meritz Securities, provided a scenario-based analysis of the impact of surging crude oil prices on the Indian economy and financial markets. He stated that if crude prices sustain above $85 per barrel, it would start impacting India's balance of payments, current account deficit, and inflation, with retail inflation potentially rising to 4.8-5.2% from 4.1%. If crude surpasses $105 per barrel, real GDP growth could slow to 5.5-5.8%. Chouhan projected that the India — Indian rupee would not breach the 100 mark against the US dollar, with worst-case depreciation to 97-98 levels depending on crude prices, and potential appreciation to 94-94.5 if tensions ease. He identified 23,800 as a robust technical support for the NIFTY 50 and expected the market to consolidate in a band of 23,000 to 25,000. He also highlighted sectoral support in BFSI and IT, noting that foreign institutional investors turning net buyers signals a capital shift from global AI stocks to value-driven IT services and domestic markets.