Novo Nordisk obesity drug comeback vs Lilly

Novo Nordisk, the Danish obesity drugmaker, is attempting a comeback after a two-year period of profit warnings, leadership upheaval, and a sliding share price, as rival Eli Lilly and Company has surged ahead in the injectable GLP-1 market. Novo's new oral Semaglutide pill has held its lead against Lilly's Orforglipron, boosting investor confidence and lifting shares about 35% from a March low. The companies are competing for dominance in the obesity drug market, projected to exceed $100 billion in the U.S. by the end of the decade. Novo has also sued Lilly in a U.S. federal court over alleged misleading marketing, a move analysts see as aggressive but unlikely to change market perception. Both companies report second-quarter results on August 5, with investors looking for signs that Novo's turnaround is durable. Novo's restructuring cut 9,000 jobs and replaced its CEO, while Lilly's Tirzepatide maintains a commanding lead in weekly prescriptions. Analysts note that generic competition for Semaglutide is expected later than previously thought, pushing some pressure into 2027.