Goldman forecasts Brent range amid US-Iran war

Goldman Sachs issued a forecast on August 4, 2026, expecting Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until either a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is confirmed or a significant escalation of their five-month-old conflict occurs. The bank estimated spot Brent's fair value at about $80 per barrel, suggesting markets are pricing in only a modest risk premium despite ongoing uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies. Brent traded near $85 per barrel on Tuesday as conflicting signals from the United States and Iran over the status of talks sowed uncertainty. Although Brent retreated to the low-to-mid $80s after the U.S. delayed planned strikes on Iran and reports suggested progress in talks over managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman said physical oil markets continue to tighten. It estimated global visible oil inventories fell by 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, driven by reduced flows from the Gulf and Red Sea, lower Russian exports, and stronger Asian imports. Gulf oil exports have fallen to about 36% of pre-war levels on a seven-day moving average basis, from nearly 80% in early July. Loaded tanker capacity in the Red Sea has dropped 22% since the Iran-aligned Houthis announced a blockade. Saudi oil exports are down 2.4 million barrels per day from a year earlier, although shipments have increasingly been rerouted through Egypt's SUMED pipeline, partly offsetting disruptions to Red Sea shipping routes. Russian crude and condensate exports fell by 1.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, while recurring disruptions to loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in the Black Sea have left shipments well below normal levels.