India solar record ALMM-II supply crunch

India is on track to commission a record 50 GWdc of solar capacity in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 49 GWdc set in 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie's report 'From Modules to Cells: India Deepens its Solar PV Push'. The surge is driven by the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate, which requires government-supported projects to use modules made from domestically manufactured cells, and by the phased removal of waivers for inter-state transmission charges. India added 34 GWdc in H1 2026, 38% above H1 2025 levels, as developers rushed to complete projects before the June deadline. However, the policy has created a domestic cell supply crunch, pushing utility-scale system prices up 20% by Q4 2026. While ALMM-II has reduced direct cell imports from China, sourcing has shifted to Southeast Asia, with Indonesian cell imports nearly tripling in early 2026. India has imposed a 20% basic customs duty on imported cells and modules, and the India — Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended additional anti-dumping duties of up to 30% on Chinese-origin cells and modules, pending a final decision. Wood Mackenzie expects momentum to slow in H2 2026 due to cell capacity constraints and rising module prices, but waivers for net metering and open access projects until December 31, 2026 could provide upside. The India — Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) also agreed in July 2026 to waive the mandate for projects approaching completion. Cell production is projected to reach 29 GW in 2027, still 21 GW short of average annual module demand of 50 GW, keeping prices elevated. Prices are expected to stabilise through 2029 as additional cell capacity comes online, with 130 GW of new capacity expected by 2029. The MNRE plans to implement ALMM-III in June 2028, extending the mandate to solar wafers.