Viking Capital Q2 Multifamily Market Report

Viking Capital released its Q2 2026 U.S. Multifamily Market Report on August 13, 2026. The report highlights a significant decline in multifamily supply, with 2026 deliveries projected to fall 36% to approximately 333,000 units, the lowest since 2014. Construction starts are down more than 50% from their 2023 peak. Fundamentals remain uneven: national vacancy is around 6.7%-6.8%, occupancy at 94.1% in April (lowest since 2013), and Q2 net absorption estimated at 73,000 units. Gateway and Midwest markets show stronger rent growth, while Sun Belt markets like Austin, Phoenix, Denver, and Tampa face elevated supply and concessions. Approximately $174 billion in equity capital has been raised for multifamily acquisitions, the largest among major commercial real estate asset classes, though wide bid-ask spreads and financing uncertainty limit transaction volume. The report suggests the declining construction pipeline will improve occupancy and reduce concessions over the next 12-24 months, with market-level divergence persisting. Asset values in many Sun Belt markets remain 20%-30% below 2022 peaks, while replacement costs have risen. Affordability constraints in for-sale housing support renter demand. The report draws on data from Yardi Matrix, Cushman & Wakefield, MSCI, Green Street, RealPage, CoStar, CoStar Group, the United States — Federal Reserve, CBRE, and other providers.