US kindergarten vaccine exemptions hit record
Analysis based on 41 articles · First reported Aug 17, 2026 · Last updated Aug 18, 2026
The continued decline in vaccination rates and rise in exemptions could increase demand for vaccines and related healthcare services, potentially benefiting pharmaceutical companies that produce vaccines. However, the policy uncertainty and public health risk may negatively affect sentiment in the healthcare sector and increase costs for insurers and employers.
Federal data released by the United States — Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on August 17, 2026 showed that U.S. kindergarten vaccination rates declined again for the 2025-2026 school year, while the share of children with vaccine exemptions rose to an all-time high of 4.2%, up from 3.6% the prior year, representing about 155,000 children. This is the fourth consecutive year of record exemption rates, with increases in 41 states and the District of Columbia. The vast majority of exemptions are nonmedical. Experts attribute the trend to turmoil and confusion caused by federal health officials, particularly U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent antivaccine advocate, and President Donald Trump, who has called for revamping childhood vaccination recommendations, including spacing out shots and separating the combined MMR vaccine. The CDC reported that MMR coverage fell to 92.4%, down from 95% pre-pandemic, and coverage also declined for polio, DTaP, and chickenpox. The data comes amid the worst measles outbreak in the U.S. since 1991, with 2,566 confirmed cases reported this year. The Trump administration's proposed changes have drawn criticism from medical groups and lawmakers, including Sen. Bill Cassidy, who warned of increased costs and reduced access. The CDC's new director, Erica Schwartz, faces a test in balancing the administration's agenda with scientific guidance. Several states have begun relying on external expert groups like the American Academy of Pediatrics instead of federal guidelines.
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