Snapshot from Aug 18, 2026 at 07:00 UTC. For live data and tracking: View Live
Events / Geopolitical / US-Iran truce expires, markets risk-off
International geopolitical tension

US-Iran truce expires, markets risk-off

Analysis based on 6 articles · First reported Aug 18, 2026 · Last updated Aug 18, 2026

Sentiment
-40
Attention
6
Articles
6
Market Impact
General
Live prominence charts, article sentiment distribution, and event development timeline available on the Ergen Dashboard
Market Impact

The expiration of the US-Iran truce and the shift to an offensive posture by Iran have heightened geopolitical risk, driving oil prices up and bond yields to multi-decade highs. This risk-off sentiment is pressuring equities and the US dollar, while safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies see modest inflows.

Oil & Gas Financial Markets Government Bonds
Event Summary

The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran expired on August 18, 2026, with Tehran announcing a shift to a 'fully offensive' military posture. President Donald Trump reaffirmed he was not interested in extending the truce, leading to renewed tensions in the Middle East. This geopolitical uncertainty pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude futures rising above $91 per barrel. Bond yields surged, with the US 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level in over two decades and the Japanese 10-year government bond yield hitting a three-decade high. Stock markets showed mixed performance, with Asian shares slightly up but Wall Street slipping on soft economic data. The US dollar weakened to a two-month low, while gold and cryptocurrencies saw modest gains.

Key Actions
80 Iran shifted to offensive posture
70 Donald Trump reaffirmed no truce extension Iran
Entities Involved
cnt
United States
The US, under President Trump, chose not to extend the truce with Iran, leading to renewed tensions and impacting global markets through higher oil prices and bond yields.
Importance 100.0 Sentiment -40.0
cnt
Iran
Iran's shift to a 'fully offensive' military posture and the expiration of the truce with the US have escalated geopolitical tensions, contributing to higher oil prices and market volatility.
Importance 100.0 Sentiment -60.0
per
Donald Trump
President Trump's decision to not extend the truce with Iran has been a key driver of the current geopolitical risk-off sentiment in markets.
Importance 90.0 Sentiment -30.0
cmdt
Brent Crude
Brent crude prices rose above $91 per barrel due to supply worries stemming from the US-Iran tensions, benefiting oil producers but adding to inflationary pressures.
Importance 80.0 Sentiment 70.0
curr
United States — United States dollar
The US dollar index fell to a two-month low of 99.527, reflecting reduced demand for the greenback amid risk-off sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -30.0
index
S&P 500
The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% overnight due to soft US economic data and geopolitical tensions, with futures flat in Asian trading.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -20.0
cbnk
United States — Federal Reserve
Soft US economic data led markets to scale back bets on an imminent Fed rate move, impacting bond yields and equities.
Importance 50.0 Sentiment -10.0
cmdt
Gold
Gold prices extended gains to a third day, reaching $4,420 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Importance 40.0 Sentiment 50.0
curr
Japan — Japanese yen
The Japan — Japanese yen strengthened as the 10-year JGB yield hit a three-decade high, reflecting a global bond selloff and safe-haven flows.
Importance 40.0 Sentiment 10.0
index
MSCI Asia Pacific Index
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 0.8%, supported by gains in South Korea's KOSPI, despite overall risk-off sentiment.
Importance 40.0 Sentiment 20.0
index
Nasdaq Composite
The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% lower, pressured by weak retail sales data and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Importance 40.0 Sentiment -20.0
crypto
Bitcoin
Bitcoin edged up 0.1% to $64,398, reflecting a slight risk-on sentiment in cryptocurrencies despite broader market caution.
Importance 30.0 Sentiment 20.0
crypto
Ethereum
Ethereum gained 0.3% to $1,911, showing resilience in the crypto market amid geopolitical tensions.
Importance 30.0 Sentiment 20.0
index
KOSPI
South Korea's KOSPI surged over 3% as the market reopened after a holiday, providing a boost to regional equities.
Importance 30.0 Sentiment 40.0
index
Nikkei 225
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, reflecting risk-off sentiment and rising bond yields.
Importance 30.0 Sentiment -10.0
+ 2 more entities View on Dashboard
Relationships
United States at war ↔ Iran The United States is currently at war with Iran, conducting sustained airstrikes and enforcing a naval blockade, while f
United States related ↔ Donald Trump
United States related ↔ Brent Crude
United States related ↔ S&P 500
United States related ↔ United States — Federal Reserve
United States related ↔ Gold
United States related ↔ MSCI Asia Pacific Index
Iran related ↔ Donald Trump
Iran related ↔ Brent Crude
Iran related ↔ S&P 500
Iran related ↔ United States — Federal Reserve
Iran related ↔ Gold
Iran related ↔ MSCI Asia Pacific Index
Donald Trump none ↔ Brent Crude Donald Trump has no direct structural relationship with Brent Crude. While his geopolitical actions and military decisio
Donald Trump related ↔ S&P 500
+ 13 more relationships View on Dashboard
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