India Ratings projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.8%

Fitch Ratings — India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), a Fitch Ratings subsidiary, projected India's GDP growth to slow to 6.8% in FY27 (April 2026-March 2027), down from 7.6% in FY26. The forecast is slightly higher than its May projection of 6.7%. Ind-Ra cited risks from fuel and food inflation due to West Asia conflict uncertainty, a weak rupee, and the likely impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on agriculture. The agency revised its average crude oil price assumption for FY27 to USD 85 per barrel from USD 95, and expects the rupee-dollar exchange rate to average Rs 93.98, a 6.4% year-on-year depreciation. Ind-Ra estimates retail inflation to average 4.9% in FY27, up from 2% in FY26, and the current account deficit to widen to 1.5% of GDP from 0.6%. It also noted that the fiscal deficit target of 4.3% remains challenging due to subsidies on LPG and fertilisers. The State Bank of India had earlier raised its FY27 growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.6%.