European wildfire area could nearly triple

A study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, projects that the area affected by wildfires in Europe could nearly triple by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Published in Global Change Biology, the research estimates that annual burned area could increase by about 39% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and by about 192% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) during 2070-2100 compared to the 2000-2030 average. The study highlights that climate change is driving hotter, drier, and windier conditions, increasing fire risk across Europe, especially in the Mediterranean and expanding into Western and Central Europe. It also emphasizes that improved fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting could reduce burned area by up to 92% under 1.8°C warming and 72% under 3.6°C warming, though these estimates may be optimistic in a much warmer climate. The findings come amid a severe wildfire season in Europe, with around 550,000 hectares burned across the European Union as of August 12, 2026, about 2.5 times the 20-year average. Researchers stress that emissions reductions are essential, alongside investment in fire management, to mitigate the escalating threat.