Unprecedented El Nino forecast by Met Office
Analysis based on 43 articles · First reported Aug 20, 2026 · Last updated Aug 21, 2026
The forecast of an unprecedented El Nino is likely to increase volatility in agricultural commodity markets, particularly for coffee and other crops sensitive to weather disruptions, potentially driving up food prices globally. The UK's agricultural sector faces risks from both drought and potential flooding, which could impact harvests and food supply, while insurance and energy sectors may see increased claims and demand.
The UK United Kingdom — Met Office has forecast an unprecedented El Nino event, expected to be the strongest in over a century, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rising more than 3C above average. This natural climate phenomenon is predicted to bring wetter and stormier conditions to the UK this autumn and winter, while increasing the risk of severe droughts in the tropics, southern Africa, and north-east Australia. The event is also expected to drive global average temperatures up, making 2027 likely the warmest year on record. The UK is already experiencing severe drought conditions, with 71.3% of Bret Engemann and all of United Kingdom — Wales in drought, and reservoir levels at 62.6% of expected. The United Kingdom — National Drought Group has moved to weekly meetings to coordinate a response. Experts warn of significant impacts on global food production and prices, with coffee prices already rising in anticipation. The event is described as 'unprecedented' and 'unheard of in modern climate records' by United Kingdom — Met Office scientists.
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