Brazil & United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brazil: Brazil's sugar production and the value of the Brazilian real significantly impact global Sugar prices. El Ni o conditions are also expected to affect its rainfall.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: The United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates the probability of El Ni o conditions, which could disrupt global sugar production.

Brazil: Brazil's Rio Grande state experienced devastating floods in 2024, and the country faces risks of similar disasters with a strong El Ni this year, exacerbated by climate change.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: The United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the existence of El Ni and provided a 63% chance that it will rank among the largest events in historical record, offering crucial forecasts for its development and impacts.

Brazil: Northern Brazil had record July heat, contributing to the regional extreme.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA reported the record-breaking July temperatures for the contiguous U.S., highlighting the severity of the heat and its link to climate change.

Brazil: Brazil's export estimates were revised down slightly, but crush estimates were increased. These adjustments affect global supply expectations.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA forecasts indicated beneficial rains across key growing regions, which could improve crop conditions and pressure prices.

Brazil: Brazil's soybean production estimate was raised by StoneX, which could impact global supply and prices.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA's weather forecasts showed dryness in key growing regions, raising concerns about crop conditions.

Brazil: Brazil is affected by sargassum blooms and is exploring sargassum as a construction material.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA collaborated with the University of South Florida on research showing macroalgae blooms increased by over 13% annually from 2003 to 2022.

Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports increased year-over-year, indicating strong global supply competition.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA's weather forecasts indicated limited rainfall in key growing regions, supporting price rallies.

Brazil: Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline, supporting global sugar prices.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA estimated a 67% probability of a 'Super El Niño', exacerbating drought concerns.

Brazil: Brazil's second corn crop was 60% harvested, lagging the 68% average, which may support global corn prices.

United States — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA forecasted 1-2 inches of rain over key corn-growing regions, improving crop prospects and pressuring prices.