Israel & Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces

Israel: Occupying power in southern Lebanon, conducting strikes and demolitions. Faces international criticism and potential war crimes allegations, while its security concerns drive its refusal to withdraw without Hezbollah's disarmament.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: Lebanese army tasked with deploying in the south and disarming Hezbollah. Its capacity and effectiveness are crucial to the agreement's success.

Israel: Opposes UNIFIL's presence and continues military operations in southern Lebanon, influencing the mandate's future and regional tensions.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: The national army that would assume greater responsibility in southern Lebanon if UNIFIL departs, and which coordinates with the peacekeepers.

Israel: Israel is the primary actor, conducting strikes and airspace violations. The escalation may increase international pressure and affect its defense sector positively but raises regional risk.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: The Lebanese army patrols with UNIFIL and handles discovered weapons. It is a secondary actor, with its capacity strained by the conflict.

Israel: Israel is the primary actor accused of starting wildfires in southern Lebanon, using incendiary munitions and drones. This action may lead to international condemnation and potential sanctions, negatively affecting Israel's international standing and possibly its economy.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: The Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces coordinates firefighting movements and relays requests to the deconfliction group. Its role is operational and may be strained by the ongoing incidents, but it has no direct market impact.

Israel: Israel demanded UNIFIL termination and remains in occupation of southern Lebanon; it reached a framework agreement with Lebanon for withdrawal in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: Erdogan pledged support to the Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces, which may strengthen its capabilities.

Israel: Israel is a key belligerent in the Iran war, but has been sidelined by US-led diplomacy. Its security and regional standing are at stake.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: Lebanese army is being deployed to southern villages under a pilot program.

Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces: The Lebanon — Lebanese Armed Forces has beefed up its presence on the streets to prevent internal instability and friction between displaced people and locals, aiming to preserve civil peace.