United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission & Polymarket
39 shared events · Importance 8 · Last updated Aug 24, 2026
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Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC is the primary regulator being urged to restrict wildfire prediction markets. It is reviewing public input on a proposal to add guardrails, and the senators' letter adds pressure for action.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a major prediction market platform that hosted wildfire bets, drawing scrutiny. It defends its markets as providing information but faces potential regulatory restrictions.
Aug 03, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is being urged by senators to investigate Polymarket for deceptive advertising and is facing scrutiny over its ability to regulate prediction markets effectively. The agency's authority and resources are being questioned, and it is also involved in legal disputes with states and CME Group regarding its jurisdiction over prediction markets and crypto derivatives.
Polymarket: Polymarket is facing a federal investigation by the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a lawsuit from a consumer protection organization due to allegations of deceptive advertising and targeting college students with misleading promotions. This event significantly harms Polymarket's reputation and could lead to substantial regulatory penalties.
Jun 26, 2026 · 7 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission>>> is actively suing United States — Minnesota>>> to assert its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, aiming to prevent the state's ban from taking effect and ensuring federal oversight of these financial instruments.
Polymarket: Polymarket>>> is a prediction market platform that would be criminalized under United States — Minnesota>>>'s new law, facing significant operational challenges if the ban is upheld. Its popularity in the 2024 US presidential election cycle highlights the stakes of this regulatory dispute.
May 19, 2026 · 26 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC is pushing for jurisdiction over prediction markets and has brought charges in related cases. This research supports its regulatory efforts and could lead to stricter enforcement.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the central platform where alleged insider trading occurred. The research and regulatory scrutiny could lead to stricter controls, reduced user trust, and potential legal or operational challenges.
Aug 20, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets as 'event contracts' in the U.S., allowing them to bypass state gambling laws. The CFTC's recent clearance for Polymarket to operate in the U.S. and its perceived lack of enforcement are central to the regulatory debate.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a major prediction market platform facing renewed scrutiny and potential regulatory challenges due to a suspicious trade related to Nicolas Maduro's capture, and its return to the U.S. market under new regulatory clearance is a key part of the event.
Jan 11, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC asserts exclusive federal authority over prediction markets, countering state actions and ordering Kalshi to continue operations, shaping the regulatory landscape.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a primary target, facing allegations of deceptive marketing and potential insider trading; it is cooperating with the investigation while reorganizing its marketing team.
Aug 12, 2026 · 23 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC sanctioned Polymarket in 2022 and later approved its return to the U.S. under a regulated structure, shaping the regulatory environment for prediction markets.
Polymarket: Polymarket lost a major banking partner due to regulatory concerns, but continues operations with a new lender and retains a relationship with JPMorgan. It faces legal challenges and is raising funds at a high valuation.
Aug 14, 2026 · 8 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC filed the lawsuit and argued for federal preemption. The ruling supports its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, strengthening its regulatory authority against state encroachment.
Polymarket: Polymarket, also a plaintiff, benefits from the injunction as it can continue operating in United States — Minnesota. The company argued the ban would disrupt its nationally uniform market and violate First Amendment rights.
Jul 27, 2026 · 20 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC regulates Polymarket U.S. and has sued states to preempt state regulations on prediction markets, supporting the industry.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the central entity; its reentry into the U.S. market aims to rebuild trust and capture market share, but faces challenges from deceptive marketing allegations and competition from Kalshi.
Jul 08, 2026 · 17 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission>>> approved the first regulated bitcoin perpetual futures contract in the U.S. and provided guidance for offshore crypto perpetual futures markets, establishing a regulatory framework for these products.
Polymarket: Polymarket>>> is a rival prediction market platform that also intends to offer perpetual futures, creating a competitive landscape with Kalshi>>> following the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission>>>'s approval.
May 29, 2026 · 18 articles
International
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket's relaunch in the United States and is now under scrutiny regarding its oversight of prediction markets and potential insider trading.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the prediction market platform where the controversial bets on Nicolás Maduro's ouster were placed, attracting scrutiny over potential insider trading.
Jan 06, 2026 · 7 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC is the regulator that will review Binance's DCM application; its approval process and stance on prediction markets are critical to the outcome.
Polymarket: Polymarket is another prediction market platform that may compete with Binance's planned offerings.
Jul 29, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC filed an emergency motion to block United States — New York's enforcement, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over Kalshi. A favorable ruling would protect federal oversight and potentially benefit the industry.
Polymarket: As a rival prediction market platform, Polymarket faces similar regulatory risks and could be affected by the outcome of this case, though it is not a direct party.
Jul 31, 2026 · 24 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating George Santos for suspicious trades on Kalshi, as part of its efforts to crack down on insider trading in prediction marketplaces. This agency regulates prediction markets.
Polymarket: Polymarket is mentioned as a rival prediction market to Kalshi, also facing scrutiny over insider trading. It has implemented new monitoring and enforcement measures in response to regulatory attention.
Jun 02, 2026 · 34 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction over predictions markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, and its chair stated a 'zero tolerance' for fraud and insider trading, despite not commenting on specific allegations.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a blockchain-powered predictions market platform where suspicious trading activity, potentially insider trading, occurred before major geopolitical events. It has since outlined new rules to crack down on such activities.
Apr 19, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Enforced regulations by settling with Santos, imposing a fine and trading ban, demonstrating oversight of prediction markets.
Polymarket: Cut ties with Santos in June following the federal probe, distancing itself from the controversy.
Jul 31, 2026 · 8 articles
Domestic
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC would gain primary authority over most crypto assets under the bill, clarifying its role.
Polymarket: Prediction market pricing Clarity Act passage odds at 44%, slightly below Galaxy's estimate.
May 20, 2026 · 87 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC granted licenses to Gemini Titan and Gemini Olympus, enabling the regulated operation of prediction markets. Its oversight is central to the legal framework.
Polymarket: Polymarket is another major competitor, also facing regulatory scrutiny in some states.
Aug 24, 2026 · 11 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC supports Kalshi, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction and suing states to block their restrictions, positioning itself as a protector of prediction markets.
Polymarket: Polymarket, a major competitor, is mentioned as facing similar legal challenges in other states, indicating broader regulatory pressure on the prediction market industry.
Aug 13, 2026 · 8 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC's regulatory oversight provides the compliant framework that makes institutional participation possible, reinforcing its role in legitimizing prediction markets.
Polymarket: Polymarket faces increased competitive pressure as a regulated alternative with institutional access emerges, potentially eroding its dominance among professional traders.
Aug 19, 2026 · 8 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission is likely to be involved in regulating prediction markets and investigating commodities fraud, although not explicitly mentioned as directly involved in this specific case's charges.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the prediction market platform where Michele Spagnuolo allegedly placed fraudulent bets. The company cooperated with law enforcement in the investigation, which led to the charges, but faces scrutiny regarding the integrity of its platform.
May 27, 2026 · 32 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US has a differing stance on prediction markets, defending aspects of federally regulated platforms, which highlights the global regulatory divergence.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the central entity in this event, facing bans and restrictions in multiple countries due to its classification as an illegal online gambling service. This significantly impacts its global expansion plans and operational reach.
May 22, 2026 · 14 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission initially blocked Kalshi's election contracts, but a federal judge later ruled in Kalshi's favor, allowing regulated US election contracts.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a chief rival to Kalshi, also experiencing significant growth and reaching a $9 billion valuation.
Dec 03, 2025 · 8 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC regulates the acquired entities, and its approval is key to Fanatics' ability to operate the exchange and clearinghouse.
Polymarket: Polymarket, a crypto-native prediction platform, faces competition from Fanatics' regulated offering, though it operates outside US jurisdiction for most contracts.
Jul 27, 2026 · 6 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC is involved in broader legal disputes over the regulation of prediction markets, including suing United States — Kentucky to prevent state gaming laws from applying to federally regulated exchanges like Kalshi.
Polymarket: Polymarket was also sued by United States — Kentucky over unlicensed sports betting, but is not directly involved in the FlightAware dispute.
Aug 12, 2026 · 6 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: David Miller, Director of the Division of Enforcement for the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is a speaker at the PREDICT 2026 conference, highlighting the regulatory focus of the event.
Polymarket: Neal Kumar, Chief legal officer of Polymarket, is a speaker at the PREDICT 2026 conference.
May 29, 2026 · 10 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC regulates Polymarket US as a designated contract market, ensuring compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act. The partnership operates within this regulatory framework.
Polymarket: Polymarket gains access to Blockchain.com's large user base, increasing its reach and trading volumes. The partnership validates its platform as a leading prediction market and may drive further growth.
Jul 14, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC is investigating Perez for potential insider trading. The agency has championed prediction markets but is cracking down on insider abuse, reinforcing its regulatory role.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a competitor to Kalshi mentioned in the context of prediction market growth, but it is not directly involved in this event.
Jul 16, 2026 · 103 articles
Regulatory
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC regulates prediction markets and received Kalshi's filing for flight delay contracts; its chair Michael S. Selig has supported drug-trial contracts.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a rival prediction market platform mentioned as having offered healthcare contracts in the past.
Jul 16, 2026 · 7 articles
Business
United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and has sued states to block enforcement, creating regulatory uncertainty.
Polymarket: Polymarket is mentioned as a target of regulatory actions in United States — Wisconsin, but is not directly involved in the Robinhood-Crypto.com talks.
Jul 25, 2026 · 6 articles
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