Donald Trump & Polymarket
28 shared events · Importance 5 · Last updated Aug 20, 2026
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Regulatory
Donald Trump: As the former US President, Donald Trump's announcements on geopolitical events and economic policies are consistently preceded by unusual trading activity, suggesting potential insider trading related to his statements.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a blockchain-powered predictions market platform where suspicious trading activity, potentially insider trading, occurred before major geopolitical events. It has since outlined new rules to crack down on such activities.
Apr 19, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: The Donald Trump>>> administration's United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission>>> has taken a stance that prediction markets fall under federal jurisdiction, leading to the lawsuit against United States — Minnesota>>>.
Polymarket: Polymarket>>> is a prediction market platform that would be criminalized under United States — Minnesota>>>'s new law, facing significant operational challenges if the ban is upheld. Its popularity in the 2024 US presidential election cycle highlights the stakes of this regulatory dispute.
May 19, 2026 · 26 articles
Domestic
Donald Trump: Trump has advocated for the CLARITY Act and met with crypto executives, boosting market sentiment. His endorsement is seen as a positive catalyst for the bill's passage.
Polymarket: Prediction market pricing Clarity Act passage odds at 44%, slightly below Galaxy's estimate.
May 20, 2026 · 87 articles
Business
Donald Trump: President Trump's administration has been supportive of prediction markets; he announced a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that was subject to insider trading on Polymarket.
Polymarket: Polymarket is the central entity; its reentry into the U.S. market aims to rebuild trust and capture market share, but faces challenges from deceptive marketing allegations and competition from Kalshi.
Jul 08, 2026 · 17 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Donald Trump advises Kalshi and Polymarket and backs Polymarket financially. His involvement ties the companies to political figures but is not directly impacted by the ruling.
Polymarket: Polymarket, also a plaintiff, benefits from the injunction as it can continue operating in United States — Minnesota. The company argued the ban would disrupt its nationally uniform market and violate First Amendment rights.
Jul 27, 2026 · 20 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Trump is mentioned in insider trading allegations involving a United States — White House staffer and in the context of geopolitical events affecting prediction markets.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a primary target, facing allegations of deceptive marketing and potential insider trading; it is cooperating with the investigation while reorganizing its marketing team.
Aug 12, 2026 · 23 articles
Domestic
Donald Trump: Endorsed Miller but declined to call for his exit; comments influence GOP dynamics.
Polymarket: Prediction market indicating high probability of Democratic flip, reflecting market sentiment.
Aug 01, 2026 · 101 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Donald Trump is mentioned as the President whose State of the Union address George Santos allegedly bet on. Trump had previously commuted Santos's sentence in a separate fraud case.
Polymarket: Polymarket is mentioned as a rival prediction market to Kalshi, also facing scrutiny over insider trading. It has implemented new monitoring and enforcement measures in response to regulatory attention.
Jun 02, 2026 · 34 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: His State of the Union address was the subject of Santos' trades; previously granted Santos clemency, but not directly involved in this settlement.
Polymarket: Cut ties with Santos in June following the federal probe, distancing itself from the controversy.
Jul 31, 2026 · 8 articles
Domestic
Donald Trump: The president previously stated no plan to pardon Bankman-Fried, and the Senate resolution adds political pressure against clemency.
Polymarket: Prediction market showed less than 1% chance of a pardon, reflecting low expectations.
Jul 16, 2026 · 6 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Donald Trump publicly supported the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, influencing the political debate surrounding their regulation.
Polymarket: Polymarket is facing a federal investigation by the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a lawsuit from a consumer protection organization due to allegations of deceptive advertising and targeting college students with misleading promotions. This event significantly harms Polymarket's reputation and could lead to substantial regulatory penalties.
Jun 26, 2026 · 7 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: President Trump was informed of the allegations and approved Perez's suspension, calling the situation 'a disgrace.' The event does not directly implicate Trump but adds to scrutiny of his administration's ethics.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a competitor to Kalshi mentioned in the context of prediction market growth, but it is not directly involved in this event.
Jul 16, 2026 · 103 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Donald Trump>>> criticized previous U.S. crypto policies for pushing perpetual trading offshore, arguing it weakened domestic innovation.
Polymarket: Polymarket>>> is a rival prediction market platform that also intends to offer perpetual futures, creating a competitive landscape with Kalshi>>> following the United States — United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission>>>'s approval.
May 29, 2026 · 18 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: The Trump administration's CFTC has been friendly to prediction markets, influencing the federal-state conflict.
Polymarket: Polymarket, a major competitor, is mentioned as facing similar legal challenges in other states, indicating broader regulatory pressure on the prediction market industry.
Aug 13, 2026 · 8 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Donald Trump is mentioned in the context of George Santos's alleged illegal betting related to his State of the Union address.
Polymarket: Polymarket is a competitor to Kalshi and has been associated with incidents of insider trading, which Kalshi is trying to avoid by implementing new integrity measures. Its operations are outside U.S. jurisdiction.
Jun 09, 2026 · 16 articles
Regulatory
Donald Trump: Trump's administration appointed the CFTC chair who declared the agency would defend its exclusive jurisdiction, indirectly influencing the dispute.
Polymarket: As a rival prediction market platform, Polymarket faces similar regulatory risks and could be affected by the outcome of this case, though it is not a direct party.
Jul 31, 2026 · 24 articles
Business
Polymarket: Polymarket is a chief rival to Kalshi, also experiencing significant growth and reaching a $9 billion valuation.
Dec 03, 2025 · 8 articles
Regulatory
Polymarket: Polymarket is a major prediction market platform facing renewed scrutiny and potential regulatory challenges due to a suspicious trade related to Nicolas Maduro's capture, and its return to the U.S. market under new regulatory clearance is a key part of the event.
Jan 11, 2026 · 6 articles
International
Polymarket: Polymarket is the prediction market platform where the controversial bets on Nicolás Maduro's ouster were placed, attracting scrutiny over potential insider trading.
Jan 06, 2026 · 7 articles
Business
Polymarket: Polymarket is a prediction markets platform where users are betting on SpaceX's valuation, exchange listing, and ticker symbol, with combined trading volume exceeding $15.2 million.
Mar 27, 2026 · 61 articles
Regulatory
Polymarket: Polymarket is the prediction market platform where Michele Spagnuolo allegedly placed fraudulent bets. The company cooperated with law enforcement in the investigation, which led to the charges, but faces scrutiny regarding the integrity of its platform.
May 27, 2026 · 32 articles
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